With a combined total of more than 500 House, Senate and gubernatorial races next year, it’s hard to cut through the spin to figure out which ones are worth watching. Here is POLITICO’s list of 10 contests to keep an eye on, whether it’s because they are uniquely revealing, particularly significant — or simply impending train wrecks.
Nevada Senate
OK, OK. So Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s reelection isn’t a replay of former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle’s unsuccessful 2004 campaign. Different state dynamics; weaker opposition; and lessons learned.
But it’s still likely to be the marquee race of 2010. This high-stakes contest will be drenched in national money, and both parties will stop at nothing to achieve their desired outcome.
All the polling in the race signals that Reid is in serious trouble, but that doesn’t mean there’s no clear path to reelection for the four-term Democratic incumbent. A handful of Republicans are vying for a chance to take him on, but the GOP struggled to come up with a well-known, top-tier opponent. That may be because Reid is widely recognized as a fierce opponent, and he’ll have all the money he needs to run the campaign he wants.
Pennsylvania Senate
No incumbent in the House or Senate has a longer or tougher road to reelection than Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter.
First, there’s a primary against Rep. Joe Sestak, a tenacious and well-funded campaigner who is challenging Specter’s Democratic credentials. Then comes a grueling general election against former Republican Rep. Pat Toomey, another well-funded and experienced candidate who’s already run against Specter before — he narrowly lost to Specter in a 2004 GOP primary.
Specter doesn’t exactly cultivate a warm and fuzzy image, so don’t expect either Sestak or Toomey to pull their punches. And as a party switcher, Specter is going to face withering attacks on his character.
In his corner, however, are two formidable allies: the White House, which has an interest in sending a message to prospective party switchers, and the Democratic establishment in Pennsylvania.
Florida Senate
The Republican primary here between Gov. Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio is likely to be more interesting than the general election.
Tea party activists have already signaled that they view this race as the next N.Y. 23, the Nov. 3 special election where the conservative grass roots revolted against the GOP establishment’s candidate.
Crist, whose poll ratings have lagged recently, is a prolific fundraiser and a skillful retail campaigner. But a February event with President Barack Obama during which he embraced the stimulus package has turned into an albatross in his bid for the nomination.
Rubio, a talented candidate in his own right, has every intention of reminding Republicans of Crist’s heresy, giving this contest all the makings of a GOP civil war.
Illinois Senate
In the GOP primary, front-runner Rep. Mark Kirk faces resistance from conservatives. In the Democratic primary, front-runner state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has not yet won over his own party.
While the February primary — the earliest in the nation — will settle all those questions and leave plenty of time for healing, there are several other X factors that make this race so compelling.
There’s impeached Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, whose shenanigans threw this seat into play — he’s slated to go to trial next year. You can bet it will be a circus that will not reflect favorably on Illinois Democrats.
Then there’s the Chicago mafia in the White House — they aren’t about to give up the president’s old Senate seat without a fight.
Texas Governor
All the best action in this race will take place in the bitter GOP primary, in which Gov. Rick Perry faces a challenge from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
There is a deep reservoir of animosity between the two leading statewide Republicans, which means the race will be nasty, brutish and expensive.
Hutchison, one of the state’s most popular pols, has been slow out of the gate. And she hasn’t ever run a race quite like this one. Perry, on the other hand, is a veteran of smash-mouth contests, having won a 2002 campaign in which his Democratic opponent spent $67 million to his $28 million.
Ohio Governor
Ohio has been kind to Democrats in recent years, but the flailing state economy and an unemployment rate of 10.1 percent have threatened first-term Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland’s reelection prospects.
Nevada Senate
OK, OK. So Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s reelection isn’t a replay of former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle’s unsuccessful 2004 campaign. Different state dynamics; weaker opposition; and lessons learned.
But it’s still likely to be the marquee race of 2010. This high-stakes contest will be drenched in national money, and both parties will stop at nothing to achieve their desired outcome.
All the polling in the race signals that Reid is in serious trouble, but that doesn’t mean there’s no clear path to reelection for the four-term Democratic incumbent. A handful of Republicans are vying for a chance to take him on, but the GOP struggled to come up with a well-known, top-tier opponent. That may be because Reid is widely recognized as a fierce opponent, and he’ll have all the money he needs to run the campaign he wants.
Pennsylvania Senate
No incumbent in the House or Senate has a longer or tougher road to reelection than Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter.
First, there’s a primary against Rep. Joe Sestak, a tenacious and well-funded campaigner who is challenging Specter’s Democratic credentials. Then comes a grueling general election against former Republican Rep. Pat Toomey, another well-funded and experienced candidate who’s already run against Specter before — he narrowly lost to Specter in a 2004 GOP primary.
Specter doesn’t exactly cultivate a warm and fuzzy image, so don’t expect either Sestak or Toomey to pull their punches. And as a party switcher, Specter is going to face withering attacks on his character.
In his corner, however, are two formidable allies: the White House, which has an interest in sending a message to prospective party switchers, and the Democratic establishment in Pennsylvania.
Florida Senate
The Republican primary here between Gov. Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio is likely to be more interesting than the general election.
Tea party activists have already signaled that they view this race as the next N.Y. 23, the Nov. 3 special election where the conservative grass roots revolted against the GOP establishment’s candidate.
Crist, whose poll ratings have lagged recently, is a prolific fundraiser and a skillful retail campaigner. But a February event with President Barack Obama during which he embraced the stimulus package has turned into an albatross in his bid for the nomination.
Rubio, a talented candidate in his own right, has every intention of reminding Republicans of Crist’s heresy, giving this contest all the makings of a GOP civil war.
Illinois Senate
In the GOP primary, front-runner Rep. Mark Kirk faces resistance from conservatives. In the Democratic primary, front-runner state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has not yet won over his own party.
While the February primary — the earliest in the nation — will settle all those questions and leave plenty of time for healing, there are several other X factors that make this race so compelling.
There’s impeached Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, whose shenanigans threw this seat into play — he’s slated to go to trial next year. You can bet it will be a circus that will not reflect favorably on Illinois Democrats.
Then there’s the Chicago mafia in the White House — they aren’t about to give up the president’s old Senate seat without a fight.
Texas Governor
All the best action in this race will take place in the bitter GOP primary, in which Gov. Rick Perry faces a challenge from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
There is a deep reservoir of animosity between the two leading statewide Republicans, which means the race will be nasty, brutish and expensive.
Hutchison, one of the state’s most popular pols, has been slow out of the gate. And she hasn’t ever run a race quite like this one. Perry, on the other hand, is a veteran of smash-mouth contests, having won a 2002 campaign in which his Democratic opponent spent $67 million to his $28 million.
Ohio Governor
Ohio has been kind to Democrats in recent years, but the flailing state economy and an unemployment rate of 10.1 percent have threatened first-term Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland’s reelection prospects.
Given that this is a key swing state, national Democrats will be closely watching this contest — and the race for Ohio’s open Senate seat — for clues for 2012. After all, in the 15 presidential elections since 1952, Ohio has picked the winner 14 times. In 2008, Obama won 51 percent of the Ohio vote, the best Democratic presidential performance since 1964.
Republicans are well-positioned to take advantage of Strickland’s vulnerability with a candidate who is familiar with the national spotlight — former Rep. John Kasich, a former House Budget Committee chairman, Fox News host and short-lived presidential candidate.
California Governor
Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is on his way out, but the largest and perhaps most ungovernable state in the nation is nevertheless poised to have a governor’s race almost as fascinating as the one that elected the former actor.
It’s California, so naturally all campaign-spending records are in jeopardy and a few fabulously wealthy candidates are in the hunt. There’s even a billionaire — former eBay CEO Meg Whitman — and she’s currently the GOP front-runner.
On the Democratic side, state Attorney General Jerry Brown is poised to pull off one of the great second acts in American politics. The 71-year-old former governor, who served two terms beginning in the mid-1970s and made three failed bids for the White House, is now the front-runner. But Sen. Dianne Feinstein has left the door open to a bid, which would set up a clash of California political titans.
Florida's 8th District
Though you wouldn’t know it from his bombast, Democratic freshman Rep. Alan Grayson represents a highly competitive Central Florida-based seat. His precarious political position would seem to demand a cautious approach, but that’s not Grayson’s style.
Instead, he has gone guns blazing at the Republican Party, winning notoriety for an incident on the House floor in which he accused the GOP of wanting people to “die quickly” rather than get better health care. Then Grayson grabbed headlines for calling a top female adviser to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke a “K St. whore.”
His combative, scorched-earth style has won him a national liberal following, but it’s also made him GOP Public Enemy No. 1. Still, Republicans have yet to settle on an opponent.
Why? Local Republicans are well aware that Grayson won’t go down without a fight — a campaign adviser told POLITICO last month that “Whoever wins the nomination will end up gutted like a fish by Election Day.”
Minnesota's 6th District
GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann drives Democrats batty with her in-your-face conservatism, yet no matter what they throw at her, she still seems to end up on top.
In 2008, Democrats thought she wouldn’t be able to recover from her sensational October cable-television comment that Obama “may have anti-American views.” Almost $2 million poured into her Democratic rival’s campaign as a result. Still, Bachmann managed to pull off a narrow victory.
This time around, bolstered by progressive online activists who detest Bachmann, Democrats are hoping to mount an even more aggressive effort to dislodge the two-term congresswoman.
But that hasn’t stopped Bachmann, who recently described Democrats’ health care plan as the “crown jewel of socialism.”
And Bachmann won’t be an easy mark — she’s amassed an army of small donors and attained rock-star status on the right, which is just as eager to return her to Congress as the left is to send her back home to Minnesota.
New Hampshire's 1st District
Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter doesn’t cut a high profile in Washington. She doesn’t do the cable-television shows, she’s not on the leadership track and she doesn’t say outrageous things.
Still, her bid to win a third term is shaping up as one of the most fascinating races of 2010 because of what it will reveal about the new political landscape.
Shea-Porter was the longest of long shots when she first won her New Hampshire seat in 2006, a former anti-war activist who almost no one expected to knock off an incumbent.
Yet the national political environment has changed considerably since then, and her race against Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta will prove a great indicator of just how much it has changed.
Shea-Porter has faced considerable criticism back home about her approach to the health care debate, with GOP opponents ripping the former grass-roots activist for her initial reluctance to hold public health care events. That makes her something of a canary in the coal mine for the big Democratic class of 2006.
Republicans are well-positioned to take advantage of Strickland’s vulnerability with a candidate who is familiar with the national spotlight — former Rep. John Kasich, a former House Budget Committee chairman, Fox News host and short-lived presidential candidate.
California Governor
Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is on his way out, but the largest and perhaps most ungovernable state in the nation is nevertheless poised to have a governor’s race almost as fascinating as the one that elected the former actor.
It’s California, so naturally all campaign-spending records are in jeopardy and a few fabulously wealthy candidates are in the hunt. There’s even a billionaire — former eBay CEO Meg Whitman — and she’s currently the GOP front-runner.
On the Democratic side, state Attorney General Jerry Brown is poised to pull off one of the great second acts in American politics. The 71-year-old former governor, who served two terms beginning in the mid-1970s and made three failed bids for the White House, is now the front-runner. But Sen. Dianne Feinstein has left the door open to a bid, which would set up a clash of California political titans.
Florida's 8th District
Though you wouldn’t know it from his bombast, Democratic freshman Rep. Alan Grayson represents a highly competitive Central Florida-based seat. His precarious political position would seem to demand a cautious approach, but that’s not Grayson’s style.
Instead, he has gone guns blazing at the Republican Party, winning notoriety for an incident on the House floor in which he accused the GOP of wanting people to “die quickly” rather than get better health care. Then Grayson grabbed headlines for calling a top female adviser to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke a “K St. whore.”
His combative, scorched-earth style has won him a national liberal following, but it’s also made him GOP Public Enemy No. 1. Still, Republicans have yet to settle on an opponent.
Why? Local Republicans are well aware that Grayson won’t go down without a fight — a campaign adviser told POLITICO last month that “Whoever wins the nomination will end up gutted like a fish by Election Day.”
Minnesota's 6th District
GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann drives Democrats batty with her in-your-face conservatism, yet no matter what they throw at her, she still seems to end up on top.
In 2008, Democrats thought she wouldn’t be able to recover from her sensational October cable-television comment that Obama “may have anti-American views.” Almost $2 million poured into her Democratic rival’s campaign as a result. Still, Bachmann managed to pull off a narrow victory.
This time around, bolstered by progressive online activists who detest Bachmann, Democrats are hoping to mount an even more aggressive effort to dislodge the two-term congresswoman.
But that hasn’t stopped Bachmann, who recently described Democrats’ health care plan as the “crown jewel of socialism.”
And Bachmann won’t be an easy mark — she’s amassed an army of small donors and attained rock-star status on the right, which is just as eager to return her to Congress as the left is to send her back home to Minnesota.
New Hampshire's 1st District
Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter doesn’t cut a high profile in Washington. She doesn’t do the cable-television shows, she’s not on the leadership track and she doesn’t say outrageous things.
Still, her bid to win a third term is shaping up as one of the most fascinating races of 2010 because of what it will reveal about the new political landscape.
Shea-Porter was the longest of long shots when she first won her New Hampshire seat in 2006, a former anti-war activist who almost no one expected to knock off an incumbent.
Yet the national political environment has changed considerably since then, and her race against Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta will prove a great indicator of just how much it has changed.
Shea-Porter has faced considerable criticism back home about her approach to the health care debate, with GOP opponents ripping the former grass-roots activist for her initial reluctance to hold public health care events. That makes her something of a canary in the coal mine for the big Democratic class of 2006.
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