Number of Democrats Falls to Four-Year Low

The number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell by nearly two percentage points in November. Added to declines earlier in the year, the number of Democrats in the nation has fallen by five percentage points during 2009.
In November, 36.0% of American adults said they were Democrats. That’s down from 37.8% a month ago and the lowest number of Democrats since December 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.
The number of Republicans inched up by just over a point in November to 33.1%. That’s within the narrow range that Republicans have experienced throughout 2009 - from a low of 31.9% to a high of 33.6%.
The number of adults not affiliated with either party grew half a point last month to 30.8%.
Despite the changes, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the nation. But the gap is down to 2.9 percentage points, the smallest since December 2007.
Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.
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Between November 2004 and 2006, the Democratic advantage in partisan identification grew by 4.5 percentage points. That foreshadowed the Democrats' big gains in the midterm elections. The gap grew by another 1.5 percentage points between November 2006 and 2008 heading into the election of President Obama. However, the gap is currently 4.7 percentage points smaller than it was in November 2008. It remains to be seen where the trend will head in 2010.
Keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not likely voters. Republicans are a bit more likely to participate in elections than Democrats.
Obama's overall approval rating in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Approval Index fell below 50% for the first time in July. A month-by-month review of the president’s ratings shows that they held steady in August and September before declining over the past couple of months.
Data from our monthly partisan identification survey is used to set weighting targets for other Rasmussen Reports surveys. The targets are based on results from the previous three months.
In recent months, Republicans have gained ground on 10 key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports and on the Generic Congressional Ballot.